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Balancing Act: Southeast Asia Between China and the US
At the risk of encirclement by strong US allies in the East (Taiwan, Japan, South Korea), China's foreign policy ambitions increasingly center around Southeast Asia. We will hear from academics and essayists about how ASEAN's position on the international stage, its relationship with the US and China is evolving, and the key factors contributing to this shift.
screenshot from the panel session
(Top left: Prof. Cheng-Chwee Kuik, Bottom right: Prof. Donald Emmerson)
Why is Southeast Asia of strategic importance to both US and China?
Prof. Kuik: Proximity (China has historically faced threats from neighbors and might look at SEA with suspicion), Prosperity (ASEAN as an important trading partner for both), Power (DNA of large powers to compete)
Prof. Emmerson: Size (of the economy), Ambition (Chinese superpower ambition may not necessarily be constrained to East Asia), Internal dynamics (which influences foreign policy)
Despite US-China rivalry, SEA can benefit by balancing both powers (strategic autonomy)
Prof. Emmerson: the US could be an offshore balancer, but China has made efforts to divide and wield influence over Southeast Asia. ASEAN’s emphasis on unanimity is holding it back.
Prof. Kuik: Implicit assumption that US-led alliances are the principle solution to regional problems, but threat/fears that commitment is not permanent.
Nonetheless, SEA faces real risks/threats, both internal and external.
Internal tensions within ASEAN (different countries respond to the powers differently) makes it difficult for ASEAN to band together in their response
External threats of entrapment, escalation, and polarization, fears of estrangement and marginalization (uncertainty in big power commitment)
Panelists
Prof. Donald Emmerson
Director of the Southeast Asia Program at Stanford and Senior Fellow Emeritus at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Affairs. Has been published extensively in the Southeast Asia-China-US relations space
Prof. Cheng-Chwee Kuik
Associate Professor and Head of Center for Asian Studies at the National University of Malaysia. Previously postdoctoral research associate at the Princeton-Harvard "China and the World" Program
